Cortes de produção em fundições de alumínio europeias podem se expandir
Cortes de produção em fundições de alumínio europeias podem se expandir
Cortes de produção em fundições de alumínio europeias podem se expandir
Russia plays an important role in the global energy and non-ferrous metal supply chain.
A partir de 2020 para 2021, a participação global das exportações de níquel da Rússia, alumínio, cobre, conduzir, e o zinco será 13.6%, 4.9%, 4.5%, 3.2%, e 0.3%, respectively.
Dentro 2020, the output of electrolytic aluminum in Russia is 3.64 milhões de toneladas, representando 5.59% of the world (65.100 milhões de toneladas); the consumption of electrolytic aluminum is 937,000 tons, representando 1.46% of the world (63.959 milhões de toneladas).
From February 24th to March 24th, 2022, the highest prices of oil, gás natural, níquel, alumínio, cobre, conduzir, and zinc rose by 29%, 10%, 107%, 14%, 8%, 9%, e 18%, respectively.
Russian aluminum exports blocked
It can be seen from the supply, demand and trade structure of aluminum resources in Russia that Russia is an important exporter of aluminum resources in the world.
According to estimates, no 2020, Russia will export a total of 2.32 million tons of aluminum products to the top ten aluminum exporting countries, of which 840,000 tons of aluminum products will be exported to Europe, representando 36% of the total of the top ten exporting countries, accounting for about European electrolytic aluminum demand. 9.27% of the amount.
United Company RUSAL Plc (hereinafter referred to as Rusal) accounts for a high proportion of the world’s aluminum production and is mainly exported to Europe.
According to Rusal’s announcement, no 2021, its aluminum output will be 3.76 milhões de toneladas, representando 5.6% of the world’s total.
Rusal’s aluminum output in 2020 is 3.64 milhões de toneladas, and the sales regions account for 45% in Europe, 25% in Asia, 7% in the Americas, e 23% in the CIS. Europe is Rusal’s main export region.
Dentro 2019, the exports of Rusal’s primary aluminum and aluminum alloys were 1.9 million tons and 840,000 tons respectively, representando 17.4% e 6.9% of the global total trade volume, representando 3% e 1.3% of global aluminum consumption respectively, the total proportion is more than 4%.
Rusal plays an important role in the European aluminum supply chain. The export of Rusal is blocked by sanctions from Europe and the United States, which will significantly impact the European aluminum market.
Dentro 2021, the output of Rusal exported to Europe will account for about 17% of European electrolytic aluminum consumption.
Cortes de produção em fundições de alumínio europeias podem se expandir
Europe is highly dependent on Russia’s energy supply.
Primeiro, the proportion of energy in the European energy structure is relatively high, of which natural gas and coal account for 34%.
Segundo, Europe is highly dependent on foreign energy, and Russia accounts for a large proportion of imported energy.
Europe’s natural gas imports account for 90% of its consumption, while natural gas from Russia accounts for 35% of Europe’s natural gas imports.
According to Reuter’s data, 21% of the natural gas needs to be transited through Ukraine; Russia accounts for 29% of Europe’s total crude oil imports.
The third is the rise in natural gas prices, driving up both coal prices and oil prices, and even the resumption of production of coal-fired power plants that had been shut down before.
European electrolytic aluminum plants are hit by energy costs, and the output reduction may be further expanded.
Dentro 2020, the European electrolytic aluminum production was 4.2046 milhões de toneladas, representando 6.47% of the global (64.98 milhões de toneladas);
no 2020, the European electrolytic aluminum consumption reached 9.0096 milhões de toneladas, and the global (63.95 milhões de toneladas) accounted for 14.09%.
According to SMM statistics, as of the beginning of March 2022, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Western Europe was 3.26 million tons per year.
Due to the shortage of energy, since December 2021, production has been reduced by nearly 900,000 tons per year, representando 1.2% of the world.
In the energy structure of electrolytic aluminum plants in Western Europe, natural gas and coal account for about 5%.
Although the proportion is not large, the overall price of electricity in Europe has risen systematically due to energy shortages, causing the cost of electrolytic aluminum to continue to rise.
Atualmente, the aluminum plants that have not stopped production in Europe have long-term orders with power companies for quarters, half a year or more than a year, which can temporarily resist the rise in electricity prices.
No entanto, we believe that the situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to the continued rise of energy prices in Europe, which will further push up the cost of electrolytic aluminum, and the scope of production reduction of European aluminum plants may be further expanded, resulting in further tightening of the supply side of electrolytic aluminum.
